Cincinnati Reds Block
Dec 13, 2017 9:25:36 GMT -8
Seattle Mariners (Robin), Cleveland Indians (Cody), and 3 more like this
Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2017 9:25:36 GMT -8
2020 Mid-season Mid Draft Edition(Alternate Title: This year has just been weird, so weird that I now unironically have a Van Dyke because I think it brings out the features of my face nicely, and it looks like it will be a write off in terms of baseball):
I thought there was an outside chance at competing this year, then like 15 things happened, and then 5 more things happened shortly after and after getting roughed up during the second week I'm looking to sell some 2020 and 21 assets. I still think my window could start as early as 21 but a lot of things would need to go right so I'm not actively loading up for next year. As far as ML pieces go the priorities right now is a medium to short term option at 1B,2B or 3B. I like my infield but it's a bit thin and I'd like some more flexibility going into the next few years. I'm also looking for a short term Catcher (who knew Manny Pina wouldn't work out as a primary catcher), I'm not particularly looking for anyone significant just a guy I can swap in and out with Manny until Luis or Alejandro come up.
Additionally, while I've totally nailed this draft so far, I will admit to some consternation about the upcoming rounds. I have a not insignificant amount of stock in the latter half of the draft (10 picks in the last 4 rounds) and while I'm not just looking to dump everything at the first offer there is some value in exploiting some of that concern, so if you got targets in mind, LMK.
Furthermore I'm always interested in prospect preference or consolidation swaps in the minors. The color coding in my minors is how I value these guys. Red are guys that I'm rather high on and view as cornerstone pieces. It's a mix of guy that I either agree with the Industry on or I'm quite a bit higher on then they are. The dudes in black are a mix of guys who I feel are contributors or are bounce back/upside guys that either have been or could be graduated to Red. Grey Dudes are kind of holding pattern guys that I'm not really sure what I got or a lot of that evaluation depended on 2020 performances,; so in the absence of that evaluation I'm kind inclined to wait and see on them so they're slightly above the dudes in White in terms of negotiations. Dudes in white aren't what I would call filler and while they usually fit a profile that I like I'm not particularly tied to them. To put it more simply: Red = I really like them; Black = I like them; Grey = I think I like them; White = they're ok I guess. Don't ask about the dude in purple, you can't have him.
Headliners - IE The Bring it Tier
Chris Paddack 600,000 (2024) - OMG It's a Unicorn! Let's kill him! It's a Young cost controlled pitcher who is available on the market! Well, it is rare that these guys are available, but since I traded Alvarez it makes sense to list him. Additionally there's a lot of value tied up in him, and since I live my life by the words of famed financial advisers The Wu-Tang clan I'm looking to "Diversify Yo Bonds". I'm a firm believer in Pitchers out = Pitchers in, especially in the cases of studs, and as such would be favoring those deals. I'd like controllable young guys, but would also consider minors pitchers, particularly if they're close. It will cost you, but with my roster make-up it's a unique opportunity.
Jeff McNeil 4,200,000 (2022) - The guy so good with a contract so cheap that we had to change the rules. If you want to get in on this black market beauty find my van behind the old movie theater in the mall, no not the mall Fashion Mall, the Mall that only has the Burlington coat factory still open. If you need a 2B, Jeffs your guy, Need a 3B Jeff can help, if you need an OF but for some reason are still willing to pay the 2B and 3B premium Jeffs got you covered. It will be harder for me to move him, not just because I'm in love with his approach and if you looked up Fred's Ideal player in the dictionary it would have a picture of Jeff McNeil with a heart around it, but because I'd need a starting level 2B in return. Also like Paddack Batters in = Batters out and I'd be giving priority to guys in the majors or dudes pretty close.
Aaron Judge 3,024,000 (2022) - I traded Alvarez for this guy so that should give some inclination on how I view him, I think that I was able to buy low on him, so I feel there's more value to be extracted given a full year of healthy production so I'm inclined not to trade him for current value. Nothing funny, just serious business
Below Market Expiring- IE The Yeah Right, Who Has Any of Those Tier
Brett Anderson 750,000 (2020) - What a weird place to list Anderson you say, Why would any contending team need him they couldn't use him, why would a rebuilding team spend assets to get him you say. To you I say, Shut up it's my block. Basically he has value as he has a secure space in the MIL rotation, he can rack up some starts early and if he continues his stellar record of mediocrity is likely to stay there all year. In order to extract maximum value he's probably only available in larger deals, as any source of starts has value in my Frankenstein rotation.
Fair Market Expiring/No Market Expiring - IE The Motivated Seller Tier
Adam Duval 14,400,000 2020 - If attractiveness was a measurable statistic Duvall would be listed above Paddack. Unfortunately for me it is not. Duvall had a bit of a bounce back last year, again, unfortunately for me Duvall spent the majority of the year in the minors last year. Fortunately for me (Finally) MLB decided it would be cool to expand their rosters, so that means Adam will likely make the roster and split time in the OF with Markakis and be the power bench bat. He's a prime target for contract swaps and desperate people looking to fill out rosters. I don't view him as a contract dump as I don't see expirings as a good source to pay to shed salary. (Which coincidentally can be exploited by you as I don't view expiring salary as that big of a knock during evaluations)
2020 Update: Platooning seems to be working out for him and I feel he's graduated from being a fringe OF candidate on a good team to a reliable 4th or 5th OF option. I don't particularly view the salary as a problem so I won't give you a discount for it, but I'm willing to eat the salary to facilitate a deal I like.
Below Market Short Term - IE I Don't Have a Name For This Tier Tier
John Gant 600,000 2021 - Steady yet unspectacular hand in the STL bullpen that is in line for a decent amount of holds again this year. Likely a reasonable relief option if you're appalled at the crazy reliever market currently.
Wade LeBlanc 600,000 2020-22T - Well Below market in the sense that if you're hard up for an arm and don't mind the Baltimore effect he can be had for cheap. Like Anderson I'd be looking for a larger deal where he's a second or third piece to extract maximum value for him.
Fair Market Medium/Short Term - IE The Not Quite Motivated Seller Tier
Robbie Grossman 700,000 2022 - He's not a one man OBP fix, but he's a one category contributor if you short on it, he could help.
2020 Update: He's doing what he's paid to do, a cheap OBP monster, he's also been pleasantly surprising in the power department. Obviously the sample size is way too small, but he's definitely something worth speculating on.
Above Market Short to Medium Term - IE The Bounce Back Tier (IE IE ? Guys I'm unlikely to sell before they have had the chance to bounce back because I targeted them for their Bounce Back appeal Tier)
Felix Hernandez, Joe Ross, Steven Matz, Matt Andriese - I'll list all these guys for obvious and some not so obvious reasons. Frankenstein rotation, not really good contract swap targets in my mind since value as potential starts means I don't view them as just empty salary.
Below Market Medium Term
Amir Garrett 1,344,000 2022 - Probably the most appealing asset in my bullpen and since he went to fight the entire Pirates organization single handedly I'm biased. Right now looks to be the closer in waiting in Cincinnati, so if you're looking to pair him with Iglesias and lock a good chunk of the high leverage pieces in that bullpen that would be a pretty astute move and you will lauded by many for your advanced intelligence.
Chad Pinder 660,000 2022 - Chad has the rare gift of playing well enough to be productive and occupy a scoring roster spot but not so good that it drives up his Arbitration salary. He's a rare and valuable beast to be sure. Basically he has some thump and a steady job in a big league rotation and is 2B eligible which is both good and bad as I can't just give away 2nd basemen like I'm Santa.
Mark Canha 9,000,000 2023 - Really only here because last year he returned value at around 13M. Hard to buy in on the late career surge but I felt 9M was good value to see if he could repeat even with some regression he has some leeway in case he can't. Put up elite OBP numbers so he'll likely keep that value even without the retained ISO jump.
Daniel Vogelbach 600,000 2024 - I thought about putting him in his own tier, but I already have way too many friggin tiers and that's a lot of work to create another one that would just have him in it. I'm likely valuing him above the market and likely more then his real life value but while he's not quite a headliner he is a guy whose profile lines up remarkably well with the scoring of this league.
2020 Update: Slumping to start of the season so he's likely not going to be included in trade talks since I think there's more value in holding onto him for a bounce back.
Clint Frazier 600,000 2022 - Just doing due diligence putting him here, I bought him as a speculation, and since I just acquired him I'm unlikely to move him until the situation clears up on him. He could either be a starter somewhere, or just as likely end up as a 4th or 5th OF for the remainder of his contract.
Fair Market Medium Term
Marwin Gonzalez, Chris Taylor - Just won these guys in FA so obviously this is what the market dictate. I obviously see value in them, probably slightly more then market. Filling roles short term so deals including them will have to include replacements, or I would have had to address those positions in other trades.
Non Arb Long Term - The Just Signed them in Free Agency Tier
Tommy Kahnle 6,000,000 2024 - Frankly was quite surprised I was able to snag him in FA at such a discount. Only 30, elite K ratios, low Whip and firmly entrenched in the Yankees bullpen, returned 18M in value last year, steal at a 3rd of that especially considering the market.
2020 Update: Rip Tommy
Andrew Chafin 5,000,000 2023-24P - Similar to Tommy, Setup with elite K ratios that returned a much greater value in 2019 (close to 12M) then it cost to acquire him, worse situation then Tommy though as the opportunity to provide holds is diminished.
2020 Update: Still posting nutty K/9 numbers has gotten roughed up in the last few outings though, won't affect his value atm so still selling him at pre 2020 value.
Upper-Tier Arb Guys - IE The I Have Plans For Em Tier
Tyler O'Neill
Randy Dobnak
Tony Gonsolin
Kolby Allard
Sterling Sharp
Christian Javier
Jonathan Loaisiga
JT Brubaker
Tyler Rogers
Generally the order of how I value them. Definitely nobody untouchable here, but are guys that carry a lot of value for me.
Mid-Tier Arb Guys - IE Not Just Sweeteners But Still Reasonable Tier
Tyler Wade
Manny Pina
Taylor Ward
Ranger Suarez
Tom Eshelman
Ildemaro Vargas
Again listed in order of how I value. Pina is only so high because he's literally the only option I have at Catcher at the moment, so that would change drastically if I get another Catcher. Gossett is here because I think there's bounce back from the injury so I couldn't put him in a lower one.
Affordable Arb Guys - IE The Pot Sweetners or Take 'em Tier
Eric Haase
Greg Allen
Ray Black
Daniel Gossett
See previous, Haase could arguably be a tier higher because of my Catcher situation.
Above Market Long and Medium Term - IE The LolME Tier
Joe Biagini
Tommy Joseph
Kelvin Herrera
Kyle Barraclough
Jhoulys Chacin
Kennys Vargas
Dalton Pompey
Yasmany Thomas
Trevor Plouffe
Shelby Miller
Ryon Healy
Arodys Viscaino
Biagini, like usual could be put on a different tier. He's got a job, so does Herrera I guess, and hey Joseph just signed with Boston. Not looking to shed the salary, so really listed for completeness and as options for contract swaps.
Random Dudes - IE The Shrug Tier
Vismael Machin 1,900,000 2022 - Just a profile I like that I decided to splurge a bit on because of positionality.
I thought there was an outside chance at competing this year, then like 15 things happened, and then 5 more things happened shortly after and after getting roughed up during the second week I'm looking to sell some 2020 and 21 assets. I still think my window could start as early as 21 but a lot of things would need to go right so I'm not actively loading up for next year. As far as ML pieces go the priorities right now is a medium to short term option at 1B,2B or 3B. I like my infield but it's a bit thin and I'd like some more flexibility going into the next few years. I'm also looking for a short term Catcher (who knew Manny Pina wouldn't work out as a primary catcher), I'm not particularly looking for anyone significant just a guy I can swap in and out with Manny until Luis or Alejandro come up.
Additionally, while I've totally nailed this draft so far, I will admit to some consternation about the upcoming rounds. I have a not insignificant amount of stock in the latter half of the draft (10 picks in the last 4 rounds) and while I'm not just looking to dump everything at the first offer there is some value in exploiting some of that concern, so if you got targets in mind, LMK.
Furthermore I'm always interested in prospect preference or consolidation swaps in the minors. The color coding in my minors is how I value these guys. Red are guys that I'm rather high on and view as cornerstone pieces. It's a mix of guy that I either agree with the Industry on or I'm quite a bit higher on then they are. The dudes in black are a mix of guys who I feel are contributors or are bounce back/upside guys that either have been or could be graduated to Red. Grey Dudes are kind of holding pattern guys that I'm not really sure what I got or a lot of that evaluation depended on 2020 performances,; so in the absence of that evaluation I'm kind inclined to wait and see on them so they're slightly above the dudes in White in terms of negotiations. Dudes in white aren't what I would call filler and while they usually fit a profile that I like I'm not particularly tied to them. To put it more simply: Red = I really like them; Black = I like them; Grey = I think I like them; White = they're ok I guess. Don't ask about the dude in purple, you can't have him.
Headliners - IE The Bring it Tier
Chris Paddack 600,000 (2024) - OMG It's a Unicorn! Let's kill him! It's a Young cost controlled pitcher who is available on the market! Well, it is rare that these guys are available, but since I traded Alvarez it makes sense to list him. Additionally there's a lot of value tied up in him, and since I live my life by the words of famed financial advisers The Wu-Tang clan I'm looking to "Diversify Yo Bonds". I'm a firm believer in Pitchers out = Pitchers in, especially in the cases of studs, and as such would be favoring those deals. I'd like controllable young guys, but would also consider minors pitchers, particularly if they're close. It will cost you, but with my roster make-up it's a unique opportunity.
Jeff McNeil 4,200,000 (2022) - The guy so good with a contract so cheap that we had to change the rules. If you want to get in on this black market beauty find my van behind the old movie theater in the mall, no not the mall Fashion Mall, the Mall that only has the Burlington coat factory still open. If you need a 2B, Jeffs your guy, Need a 3B Jeff can help, if you need an OF but for some reason are still willing to pay the 2B and 3B premium Jeffs got you covered. It will be harder for me to move him, not just because I'm in love with his approach and if you looked up Fred's Ideal player in the dictionary it would have a picture of Jeff McNeil with a heart around it, but because I'd need a starting level 2B in return. Also like Paddack Batters in = Batters out and I'd be giving priority to guys in the majors or dudes pretty close.
Aaron Judge 3,024,000 (2022) - I traded Alvarez for this guy so that should give some inclination on how I view him, I think that I was able to buy low on him, so I feel there's more value to be extracted given a full year of healthy production so I'm inclined not to trade him for current value. Nothing funny, just serious business
Below Market Expiring- IE The Yeah Right, Who Has Any of Those Tier
Brett Anderson 750,000 (2020) - What a weird place to list Anderson you say, Why would any contending team need him they couldn't use him, why would a rebuilding team spend assets to get him you say. To you I say, Shut up it's my block. Basically he has value as he has a secure space in the MIL rotation, he can rack up some starts early and if he continues his stellar record of mediocrity is likely to stay there all year. In order to extract maximum value he's probably only available in larger deals, as any source of starts has value in my Frankenstein rotation.
Fair Market Expiring/No Market Expiring - IE The Motivated Seller Tier
Adam Duval 14,400,000 2020 - If attractiveness was a measurable statistic Duvall would be listed above Paddack. Unfortunately for me it is not. Duvall had a bit of a bounce back last year, again, unfortunately for me Duvall spent the majority of the year in the minors last year. Fortunately for me (Finally) MLB decided it would be cool to expand their rosters, so that means Adam will likely make the roster and split time in the OF with Markakis and be the power bench bat. He's a prime target for contract swaps and desperate people looking to fill out rosters. I don't view him as a contract dump as I don't see expirings as a good source to pay to shed salary. (Which coincidentally can be exploited by you as I don't view expiring salary as that big of a knock during evaluations)
2020 Update: Platooning seems to be working out for him and I feel he's graduated from being a fringe OF candidate on a good team to a reliable 4th or 5th OF option. I don't particularly view the salary as a problem so I won't give you a discount for it, but I'm willing to eat the salary to facilitate a deal I like.
Below Market Short Term - IE I Don't Have a Name For This Tier Tier
John Gant 600,000 2021 - Steady yet unspectacular hand in the STL bullpen that is in line for a decent amount of holds again this year. Likely a reasonable relief option if you're appalled at the crazy reliever market currently.
Wade LeBlanc 600,000 2020-22T - Well Below market in the sense that if you're hard up for an arm and don't mind the Baltimore effect he can be had for cheap. Like Anderson I'd be looking for a larger deal where he's a second or third piece to extract maximum value for him.
Fair Market Medium/Short Term - IE The Not Quite Motivated Seller Tier
Robbie Grossman 700,000 2022 - He's not a one man OBP fix, but he's a one category contributor if you short on it, he could help.
2020 Update: He's doing what he's paid to do, a cheap OBP monster, he's also been pleasantly surprising in the power department. Obviously the sample size is way too small, but he's definitely something worth speculating on.
Above Market Short to Medium Term - IE The Bounce Back Tier (IE IE ? Guys I'm unlikely to sell before they have had the chance to bounce back because I targeted them for their Bounce Back appeal Tier)
Felix Hernandez, Joe Ross, Steven Matz, Matt Andriese - I'll list all these guys for obvious and some not so obvious reasons. Frankenstein rotation, not really good contract swap targets in my mind since value as potential starts means I don't view them as just empty salary.
Below Market Medium Term
Amir Garrett 1,344,000 2022 - Probably the most appealing asset in my bullpen and since he went to fight the entire Pirates organization single handedly I'm biased. Right now looks to be the closer in waiting in Cincinnati, so if you're looking to pair him with Iglesias and lock a good chunk of the high leverage pieces in that bullpen that would be a pretty astute move and you will lauded by many for your advanced intelligence.
Chad Pinder 660,000 2022 - Chad has the rare gift of playing well enough to be productive and occupy a scoring roster spot but not so good that it drives up his Arbitration salary. He's a rare and valuable beast to be sure. Basically he has some thump and a steady job in a big league rotation and is 2B eligible which is both good and bad as I can't just give away 2nd basemen like I'm Santa.
Mark Canha 9,000,000 2023 - Really only here because last year he returned value at around 13M. Hard to buy in on the late career surge but I felt 9M was good value to see if he could repeat even with some regression he has some leeway in case he can't. Put up elite OBP numbers so he'll likely keep that value even without the retained ISO jump.
Daniel Vogelbach 600,000 2024 - I thought about putting him in his own tier, but I already have way too many friggin tiers and that's a lot of work to create another one that would just have him in it. I'm likely valuing him above the market and likely more then his real life value but while he's not quite a headliner he is a guy whose profile lines up remarkably well with the scoring of this league.
2020 Update: Slumping to start of the season so he's likely not going to be included in trade talks since I think there's more value in holding onto him for a bounce back.
Clint Frazier 600,000 2022 - Just doing due diligence putting him here, I bought him as a speculation, and since I just acquired him I'm unlikely to move him until the situation clears up on him. He could either be a starter somewhere, or just as likely end up as a 4th or 5th OF for the remainder of his contract.
Fair Market Medium Term
Marwin Gonzalez, Chris Taylor - Just won these guys in FA so obviously this is what the market dictate. I obviously see value in them, probably slightly more then market. Filling roles short term so deals including them will have to include replacements, or I would have had to address those positions in other trades.
Non Arb Long Term - The Just Signed them in Free Agency Tier
Tommy Kahnle 6,000,000 2024 - Frankly was quite surprised I was able to snag him in FA at such a discount. Only 30, elite K ratios, low Whip and firmly entrenched in the Yankees bullpen, returned 18M in value last year, steal at a 3rd of that especially considering the market.
2020 Update: Rip Tommy
Andrew Chafin 5,000,000 2023-24P - Similar to Tommy, Setup with elite K ratios that returned a much greater value in 2019 (close to 12M) then it cost to acquire him, worse situation then Tommy though as the opportunity to provide holds is diminished.
2020 Update: Still posting nutty K/9 numbers has gotten roughed up in the last few outings though, won't affect his value atm so still selling him at pre 2020 value.
Upper-Tier Arb Guys - IE The I Have Plans For Em Tier
Tyler O'Neill
Randy Dobnak
Tony Gonsolin
Kolby Allard
Sterling Sharp
Christian Javier
Jonathan Loaisiga
JT Brubaker
Tyler Rogers
Generally the order of how I value them. Definitely nobody untouchable here, but are guys that carry a lot of value for me.
Mid-Tier Arb Guys - IE Not Just Sweeteners But Still Reasonable Tier
Tyler Wade
Manny Pina
Taylor Ward
Ranger Suarez
Tom Eshelman
Ildemaro Vargas
Again listed in order of how I value. Pina is only so high because he's literally the only option I have at Catcher at the moment, so that would change drastically if I get another Catcher. Gossett is here because I think there's bounce back from the injury so I couldn't put him in a lower one.
Affordable Arb Guys - IE The Pot Sweetners or Take 'em Tier
Eric Haase
Greg Allen
Ray Black
Daniel Gossett
See previous, Haase could arguably be a tier higher because of my Catcher situation.
Above Market Long and Medium Term - IE The LolME Tier
Joe Biagini
Tommy Joseph
Kelvin Herrera
Kyle Barraclough
Jhoulys Chacin
Kennys Vargas
Dalton Pompey
Yasmany Thomas
Trevor Plouffe
Shelby Miller
Ryon Healy
Arodys Viscaino
Biagini, like usual could be put on a different tier. He's got a job, so does Herrera I guess, and hey Joseph just signed with Boston. Not looking to shed the salary, so really listed for completeness and as options for contract swaps.
Random Dudes - IE The Shrug Tier
Vismael Machin 1,900,000 2022 - Just a profile I like that I decided to splurge a bit on because of positionality.
