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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 10:48:49 GMT -8
Blue Jays Send:
SP Marcus Stroman $8,000,000 2021 1B Yordan Alvarez - MILB SS Yunior Severino - MILB C MJ Melendez - MILB 1.3 AMAT Pick for 2018 2.3 MiLBFA Pick for 2018
Phillies Send:
SP Luis Severino $4,500,000 2021-2022P OF Jorge Soler $9,600,000 2021-2022T (Paid Minors) OF Dylan Cozens - MILB RHP Albert Abreu - MILB SS Zack Short - MILB
Toronto justification: Trading for Severino gives my team a cost controlled ace and even with taking the difference in salary I am acquiring into account, I still believe him to be a positive value. I did not have any attachment to any of the MiLB players I gave up since I inherited them when I got this team. The picks were honestly the biggest worry for me to lose, but I have faith I will be able to work around those loses at a later date. As for the MiLB players I received, I at least like them enough to sweeten this deal for me. In addition, Soler is only 26 next year so hopefully he earns some playing time with the Royals next year.
I honestly have no idea if I underpaid, overpaid, or if it was just right on what I had to pay to make this deal. I look forward to hearing what others have to say as I feel this is definitely a blockbuster.
Thanks for being patient with me during the holidays Paul!
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Post by Philadelphia Phillies (Paul) on Jan 4, 2018 13:19:13 GMT -8
Phillies agree.
The holidays are a busy time for all us, no worries, Frank. Glad we finally got the deal done.
Phillies reasoning:
First, to trade away a young ace like Severino, I'm only doing it if I can shed some salary (Soler) while also getting high picks and/or prospects.
Since the elite prospects were off the table, the two picks were an absolute must-have. In addition, I could only do the deal by getting a decent major leaguer in return - enter Stroman. My hope is that he continues to develop into a solid, consistent #2 type guy - and if he does, I'm very happy with this deal. Even if he can just stay healthy and consistent as a mid-rotation guy, I'm OK with that too - as long as he doesn't hurt my overall pitching. He reminds me a little of Michael Fulmer - not size, obviously - but another guy with good-great stuff that just hasn't quite turned it into swing and miss stuff yet.
The prospects I'm getting aren't guys for whom I'd normally trade off a Luis Severino. While I'm not in love with those guys, they're guys I like enough to believe they could some day contribute and, as a group, are improvements to my farm. I just need to ensure I make good picks with the two I acquired.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 15:38:09 GMT -8
Wow, this is interesting. Definitely an altering trade for both sides.
For me from the Jays side: You have to believe this was not a fluke year from Severino and you would really have to believe it, because of the acquisiton cost. I like Severino, his GB rate is high, but being in NY is not in his favor. I like Soler actually, I tried to bid for him in initial FA; that contract stings overall, but maybe he'll figure it out this year? Cozens is ugh(power potential), Abreu is nice and Short is okay. Cost of acqusition is okay actually for acquiring Severino. Stroman is good, but receiving Severino, you'd have to give up a promising piece and Stroman is that. Alvarez is the best prospect in this deal; good speed and power. He'll be a quick riser. Severino just got a few Million from Minnesota and he's an intersting prospect! The two picks hurt; 1.3 in the amateur stings.
Phillies: Rebuild is in full process, i would argue keeping Severino would of been better overall for a rebuild. Getting off of Solers' contract is good. The two picks have to be hits or else this does not look good in the long term, if Sevy is who he was this last year.
Overall this is hard to quantify in terms of grades. I'd say it is even, because anything could go wrong both sides, this is VERY risky for both sides.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 15:59:46 GMT -8
I honestly have no idea if I underpaid, overpaid, or if it was just right on what I had to pay to make this deal. That makes two of us.
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Post by Philadelphia Phillies (Paul) on Jan 4, 2018 16:25:04 GMT -8
I honestly have no idea if I underpaid, overpaid, or if it was just right on what I had to pay to make this deal. I look forward to hearing what others have to say as I feel this is definitely a blockbuster. That makes two of us. My only thought on this so far is geez Phillies have picks 2-4 in the MiLB draft now lol. Ha...I wish. It's 1.3 AMAT and 2.3 MiLBFA.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 16:30:34 GMT -8
+5 Jays I kind of like this trade for both sides though.
I think Jays win if you buy into Severino's changeup gains last year and his increased ground ball rate. There's nothing to indicate to me that they were a fluke, so I'm inclined to think he's conservatively a 2. If they were a fluke he's a back end starter on a decent contract. Soler while an anchor of a contract still has some of the most tantalizing upside in the deal, but at this point you can't really be buying into him, he's just been a tease forever. As far as contract dumps go, he's probably one of the better ones so it's not like you're paying 13 million just for Severino. He also gets to buy low on Cozens, who for a time was as highly touted as Hoskins. He is young enough to possibly bounce back. I really like Short, he's an interesting utility piece.
Stroman is "OK", Melendez is a minor league catcher (meh), the MilFA pick has value but w/e. Alvarez I think is undervalued by a lot of people I think, he'a borderline top 50 prospect and a top 5 pick in this upcoming draft is a really valuable asset considering the talent.
In the end it's still not a lot to move for an underpaid Ace, and I think he benefited from timing. I guess there's still enough doubt in if he is legit, which is fair, but a similar performance this year and this deal probably doesn't get done.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 18:18:55 GMT -8
That makes two of us. My only thought on this so far is geez Phillies have picks 2-4 in the MiLB draft now lol. Ha...I wish. It's 1.3 AMAT and 2.3 MiLBFA. Ah misread that. Might not be that much of a difference valuewise depending on how the top of the 2018 draft looks.
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Post by Detroit Tigers (Matt) on Jan 4, 2018 19:58:24 GMT -8
+5 Phillies, Stroman can get K's and low ERA's which can be helpful in this format. And I have never been convinced Severino is what he is cracked up to be.
But all in all not far off from being even.....and quite the big deal when all was starting to be quiet!
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Post by Chicago Cubs (Curtis) on Jan 5, 2018 7:06:08 GMT -8
Phillies commit to the rebuild even further by trading one of their highest risk/reward assets in Severino for a serious package of prospects/picks, plus get out of what IMO is a pretty worthless Soler contract. I don't think the upgrade from Stroman to Severino is enough to make me want to make this trade if I was the Jays, but I totally get the need to take that risk in order to compete with the big boys in the AL. +5 Phillies for me, but an exciting gamble on either side.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 0:01:12 GMT -8
Trade processed in Fantrax and spreadsheet.
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