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Post by Chicago Cubs (Curtis) on Feb 26, 2019 9:51:04 GMT -8
CHC sends
1B Justin Smoak $960,000 2019
SP Kyle Gibson $2,600,000 2021-22P
3B Yu Chang $600,000 20xx
NYY sends
OF Jo Adell LAA
SP Domingo German $600,000 20xx
This is a clear breach of my win-now policy, but with other teams in my division seeming to take a step back I figured that this is my chance to gamble on upside. Jo Adell has the potential to be one of the top prospects in the game in a year or two, and since I love following prospects I figured it would be extremely fun to own him in this league. Losing Gibson hurts the most as I am now without a full starting rotation to begin the season, though I do think it is likely that German makes some starts for NYY later in the season subject to rotation injuries. I'll make do without Smoak with a combination of Zimmermann and Happ, though I definitely lose a few weekly at-bats out of my CI spot. Yu Chang was made expendable by my realization that Ian Happ has retained 3B eligibility (I had thought he would only be OF eligible) so he will function as my injury depth behind Bryant.
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Post by New York Yankees (Josh) on Feb 26, 2019 9:58:35 GMT -8
NY accepts, losing Adell was really tough. I had a lot of offers but I truly believe that I can compete at the top of my division with this roster. I ha e a ton of cap still and more to free up next season. I like Chang as well. Smoak is a rental that will add to my HR totals and Gibson is a source of QS which I like. I think he'll be better than last year. I'd say Chicago get the better end in the future with Adell but I like where I am at moving forward and with getting rid of bird at some point smoak was about the only guy I could get in all my trade talks and he's cheap. Thank Curtis hope this works out for both of us!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2019 11:13:45 GMT -8
I seriously don't understand this deal. Unless I'm missing something about Gibson, guess I'm the only one though so, shrug.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2019 12:46:52 GMT -8
Gibson has been good for one year basically. He's a ground ball pitcher and last year upped his velocity and his K rate. I would buy on Gibson, but not for Addell. It doesn't make much sense for me, I don't think Gibson is going to become an ace anytime soon.
Again the rich get richer..
+50 CHC
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2019 14:11:12 GMT -8
+35 CHC
Adell is by far the top talent in this deal, and he's not so terribly far away that I would send him for a mediocre-sometimes-good SP in Gibson, albeit a good contract and good value. Smoak is a rental who's mostly inconsistent, so he may or may not help. I don't believe Chang will ever see 1000 ABs in the majors - but for Josh's sake, I hope I'm wrong and that he hits .260 with 20+ homers every year. I really don't understand why German is also going - not that he's a top guy, but he's still young and could be useful.
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Post by Los Angeles Dodgers (Jon) on Feb 28, 2019 15:45:53 GMT -8
+40 Cubs. Not much to add here. Giving away Adell for an average at best starter, a declining 1B, a and good prospect (although I prefer German to Chang) doesn’t make a lot of sense. I knew he was selling low on Adell after having some trade discussions with NY myself, but it seems he could have done better. I will say everyone received is on a good contract, but there’s a good chance none contribute as much as Adell will on an even cheaper contract.
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Post by Seattle Mariners (Robin) on Feb 28, 2019 16:03:35 GMT -8
+50 CHC
Bad Trade in my opinion.
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Post by Detroit Tigers (Matt) on Feb 28, 2019 17:28:17 GMT -8
+60 CHC.....wow
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Post by Chicago Cubs (Curtis) on Mar 1, 2019 15:17:42 GMT -8
Processed... I am surprised to see the sentiment that this is that overwhelming of a deal. Certainly I feel like I got the better end of it, otherwise I wouldn't have sacrificed by current MLB strength. However the prospect writers at Fangraphs have started to roll out rough probability distributions for their top prospects - Adell's shows 50% chance that he busts or tops out as a below-average big-leaguer! Compare that to less than 10% for Vlad, or 30% for Tatis Jr.
Of course the upside is what is so tantalizing about him, but it feels like the risk isn't being considered strongly enough.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2019 17:21:06 GMT -8
Looks like I'm a bit late, but whatevs.
+50 Cubs
Adell is already one of the best prospects in the game. Just checked around some rankings for confirmation and the lowest I could find him was 17th and he was in the top 10 in multiple. In the mentioned article, Fangraphs had him at 11 and gives him a higher chance of being a star than any other outcome other than bust. The bust percentage is most likely high because he only has one season of full year baseball to use for data. Comparing him to Vlad, who's maybe the most hyped prospect in recent memory (and deservedly so), seems unfair. He's actually mirrored Tatis' path pretty closely through 2 years by dominating rookie ball in year one and getting all the way to AA in year two. You can argue Adell has performed better in both years.
Now for the return: I actually think Smoak will be pretty good this year, but he's only got 1 year left on his contract. Gibson was good last year, but was bad before that, so odds are he'll regress a bit. I don't have any strong opinions on Chang. I wouldn't trade Adell for all 3, but the Yankees also included German.
Like I said about the Oneil Cruz trade, even if Adell never amounts to anything, let's say he decides to retire and pursue his lifelong dream of climbing Mt. Everest before reaching the majors, the Yankees easily could've gotten more just for the potential player he could be. The Yankees have to win the championship this year or this is a disastrous trade and frankly, I prefer Adell's odds of becoming a star.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2019 17:27:56 GMT -8
Thats ridiculous. Gibson is at best a top 75 pitcher and that is after a pop up season no one saw coming and in his 30s and likely exceeds peak value currently. Hes not even in many guys top 300 dynasty rankings, where Adell is comfotably deep into the 100s.
Using flame out percentage is a bit off, of course he's going to be a higher bust risk then guys who mashed at higher levels and are close to the majors, a few years ago those guys were either not well known or were ranked similarly to Jo.
I've seen two trades this offseason involving Jo as a signifigant peice for Mookie Betts and Arenado. Gibson just doesnt rate as a logical carrying piece for a top 15 prospect with MVP upside.
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