Boston Draft Write Up
Aug 17, 2023 18:33:38 GMT -8
Chicago Cubs (Curtis), San Diego Padres (Sean), and 4 more like this
Post by Boston Red Sox (Brandon) on Aug 17, 2023 18:33:38 GMT -8
Howdy guys. For my more involved dynasty leagues, I like doing write ups on my first few draft picks that go through my thought process and what there is to like about each player. Read it or don't read it. It's all just for fun and to help pass time at the office Apologies in advance if this kind of thing isn't welcome here. I'll happily remove if that's the case.
Chase Davis 1.20
Don’t let the draft position fool you. Despite being picked 20th overall, Chase Davis was the 6th best player on my board, and I was prepared to take him with pick 1.06 had I not been able to find a deal. I wouldn’t have loved taking him there as I thought there was a good chance he slid because of the draft position.
Davis is great pure athlete. He has a Carlos Gomez-esque swing that generates a ton of bat speed and natural loft. He didn’t steal bases at all in college but neither did Arizona as a team. He probably only ends up as a 50 runner, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if he starts stealing more considering the new stolen base environment.
Davis’s offensive data from this past year is on par with the likes of Crews and Langford. He posted better power metrics than Wyatt Langford suggesting 70 grade raw. He 80.1% contact and the 88.8% z-contact rates were literally better than Dylan Crews this year. He only chased 16.7% percent of the time suggesting an advanced approach. Albeit, most of this data came against a weak Pac-12. He's also only shown this level of contact skills this year which is scary to think about.
The offensive upside with Davis is truly elite. If the tools sustain across the board in pro ball, Davis will be a star level player. Even if the contact regresses and as long as it doesn’t completely bottom out, I think it’s going to look a lot like Michael Conforto.
The stat line isn’t pretty so far at A ball but the bat to ball skills and swing decisions
seem to have translated. He’s making contact just not flush contact. He’s shown the ability to barrel the ball in the past so I’m not even close to being worried at this point.
Walker Martin 2.06
Like Davis, the draft position is somewhat misleading. Walker Martin is a clear top 8-12 player in this draft. The Giants considered him heavily at pick 15 and paid him backend of the first-round money. He was in moderate consideration for the 6th overall pick had I not been able to find a deal.
There’s a ton like in this profile. For starters, he might be the most physically gifted prep player in the class. It’s a lanky 6’4 frame with plenty of twitch and projection and present bat speed. The swing is a pretty lefty stroke.
Given the projection, there is a realistic scenario in which the power develops into a 70-grade tool. Even if the power peaks at 60, I think he’ll be able to tap into every ounce of it given his feel to hit the ball hard at steep angles.
There’s some whiff risk here but so long as he continues to barrel up the ball and maintain reasonable chase rates, it really won’t matter all that much. He’s older for the class, but so were Brett Baty, Jordan Lawlar, and Colson Montgomery, all three of which turned into consensus top-20 prospects. He faced weak Colorado pitching during his high school career but performed well at showcases.
A fractured back that he played the entire high school season with helped depress his draft stock so he’ll have to prove that it’s not a lingering issue in pro ball. If the profile holds in the minors, I believe a Riley Green/Gunnar Henderson type outcome (mediocre whiff, solid chase, and elite power) is well within the realm of possibilities.
He has yet to make his pro debut.
Colton Ledbetter 2.20
Colton Ledbetter is a really slept on bat. I had Ledbetter as a top 15 player in this draft. I would have been more than fine taking him at pick 20 so getting him at pick 40 worked out really well.
Ledbetter’s a sneakily an above average athlete. He stole 17 bases this Spring while only being thrown out once. The speed won’t be anything special but its comfortably average and he has shown good instincts and the willingness to run. It’s good bat speed from the left side with quick hands.
Ledbetter is another data darling. His max EV of 117 came on towering pull side tank that traveled 460 feet. The power plays best to his pull side but it’s still tremendous. It might be double-plus raw power. That isn’t to say he’s just some free-swinging bopper. He posted a 19% walk rate and a 14.7% chase rate. The bat to ball skills look comfortably plus with a 90.6% zone contact rate. If there is one blemish in the offensive profile, its that he’s too passive with only a 33% swing rate. It’s the same problem as Emmanuel Rodriguez with the Twins. He is going to have to be way more aggressive to be successful in the pros. It shouldn’t hurt him since he already makes so much contact.
Overall, it’s a metrically sound profile with good athleticism. You hope this profile translates to a Lars Nootbar type of player in the majors. If he can’t make contact think more of a Jack Suwinski. For fantasy purposes, if he’s not a base stealer, put him in the Daniel Vogelbach, Lamonte Wade Jr, and Darin Ruf bucket.
Cade Kuehler 3.06
Drafting arms in the first round is extremely capricious. It’s how you end up drafting Sam Bachman over Ricky Tiedemann and Kumar Rocker over Jacob Misiorowski. There is an argument to be made that Cade Kuehler has the best stuff of the college starters in this class outside of Skenes, Waldrep, and Dollander. Keeping that in mind, Kuehler looks like a really solid get in the third round.
The fastball is the carrying pitch here. He’s touched 99 mph but sits around 94 mph. The shape is elite. He can get as much as 20-21” inches of IVB so he’ll get a ton of whiffs on it at the top of the zone. He struggles commanding it at times, but the pitch is so nasty that it’ll play regardless. It’s at least a 60 pitch right now. If he can harness it, it’ll be a 70.
His main secondaries are a curveball and a slider. He throws the curveball harder than most, usually sitting in the low-80s. He gets good depth, and it pairs wells off the fastball at that velo band. He started getting more downward break on the slider this year which helped him command it a bit better. He’ll throw it in the mid-80s. I’m a bigger fan of the curveball right now.
He's on the shorter end for a starting pitcher with a pretty funky delivery that contributes to his inconsistency throwing strikes. If he can optimize the delivery to the point where throwing consistent strikes, the upside is that of a #2 starter. If not, its more of a volume strikeout #3/#4 or a high-end reliever. I trust Atlanta to get the most out of him.
Jackson Baumeister 3.09
Jackson Baumeister is a fun upside play at this selection. The results were bad at Florida St. but he’s young for the class and still quite raw. The profile is great clay for a progressive organization like Baltimore to get their hands on and mold into whatever fits their model.
Baumeister has long been known for having one of the most metrically appealing fastballs since his prep days. He can put up a 98 on the radar gun but he generally sits 93-94. He gets solid IVB. However, his low release point and great extension out front give the pitch a very flat vertical approach angle. This is the same trait that makes the fastballs of guys like Paul Sewald and Joe Ryan so effective in inducing whiffs.
The curveball is his best and most advanced secondary. He throws it in the mid 70s with 12-6 movement. The slider and changeup are thrown in the mid and low 80s, respectively. The slider and changeup are fringy right now, but he’s only really started developing them this year.
Baumeister is a young draft-eligible sophomore with only one full year of starting experience and was a two-way catcher up until his freshman year at FSU. There’s also still a good amount of projection on his 6’4” frame. You have to really dream on the finished product but if Baltimore is able to develop the secondaries, he can be a solid mid-rotation arm. If he’s a one pitch guy, maybe he can be a late career Jake McGee type reliever who was lights out throwing exclusively the flat fastball.
Chase Davis 1.20
Don’t let the draft position fool you. Despite being picked 20th overall, Chase Davis was the 6th best player on my board, and I was prepared to take him with pick 1.06 had I not been able to find a deal. I wouldn’t have loved taking him there as I thought there was a good chance he slid because of the draft position.
Davis is great pure athlete. He has a Carlos Gomez-esque swing that generates a ton of bat speed and natural loft. He didn’t steal bases at all in college but neither did Arizona as a team. He probably only ends up as a 50 runner, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if he starts stealing more considering the new stolen base environment.
Davis’s offensive data from this past year is on par with the likes of Crews and Langford. He posted better power metrics than Wyatt Langford suggesting 70 grade raw. He 80.1% contact and the 88.8% z-contact rates were literally better than Dylan Crews this year. He only chased 16.7% percent of the time suggesting an advanced approach. Albeit, most of this data came against a weak Pac-12. He's also only shown this level of contact skills this year which is scary to think about.
The offensive upside with Davis is truly elite. If the tools sustain across the board in pro ball, Davis will be a star level player. Even if the contact regresses and as long as it doesn’t completely bottom out, I think it’s going to look a lot like Michael Conforto.
The stat line isn’t pretty so far at A ball but the bat to ball skills and swing decisions
seem to have translated. He’s making contact just not flush contact. He’s shown the ability to barrel the ball in the past so I’m not even close to being worried at this point.
Walker Martin 2.06
Like Davis, the draft position is somewhat misleading. Walker Martin is a clear top 8-12 player in this draft. The Giants considered him heavily at pick 15 and paid him backend of the first-round money. He was in moderate consideration for the 6th overall pick had I not been able to find a deal.
There’s a ton like in this profile. For starters, he might be the most physically gifted prep player in the class. It’s a lanky 6’4 frame with plenty of twitch and projection and present bat speed. The swing is a pretty lefty stroke.
Given the projection, there is a realistic scenario in which the power develops into a 70-grade tool. Even if the power peaks at 60, I think he’ll be able to tap into every ounce of it given his feel to hit the ball hard at steep angles.
There’s some whiff risk here but so long as he continues to barrel up the ball and maintain reasonable chase rates, it really won’t matter all that much. He’s older for the class, but so were Brett Baty, Jordan Lawlar, and Colson Montgomery, all three of which turned into consensus top-20 prospects. He faced weak Colorado pitching during his high school career but performed well at showcases.
A fractured back that he played the entire high school season with helped depress his draft stock so he’ll have to prove that it’s not a lingering issue in pro ball. If the profile holds in the minors, I believe a Riley Green/Gunnar Henderson type outcome (mediocre whiff, solid chase, and elite power) is well within the realm of possibilities.
He has yet to make his pro debut.
Colton Ledbetter 2.20
Colton Ledbetter is a really slept on bat. I had Ledbetter as a top 15 player in this draft. I would have been more than fine taking him at pick 20 so getting him at pick 40 worked out really well.
Ledbetter’s a sneakily an above average athlete. He stole 17 bases this Spring while only being thrown out once. The speed won’t be anything special but its comfortably average and he has shown good instincts and the willingness to run. It’s good bat speed from the left side with quick hands.
Ledbetter is another data darling. His max EV of 117 came on towering pull side tank that traveled 460 feet. The power plays best to his pull side but it’s still tremendous. It might be double-plus raw power. That isn’t to say he’s just some free-swinging bopper. He posted a 19% walk rate and a 14.7% chase rate. The bat to ball skills look comfortably plus with a 90.6% zone contact rate. If there is one blemish in the offensive profile, its that he’s too passive with only a 33% swing rate. It’s the same problem as Emmanuel Rodriguez with the Twins. He is going to have to be way more aggressive to be successful in the pros. It shouldn’t hurt him since he already makes so much contact.
Overall, it’s a metrically sound profile with good athleticism. You hope this profile translates to a Lars Nootbar type of player in the majors. If he can’t make contact think more of a Jack Suwinski. For fantasy purposes, if he’s not a base stealer, put him in the Daniel Vogelbach, Lamonte Wade Jr, and Darin Ruf bucket.
Cade Kuehler 3.06
Drafting arms in the first round is extremely capricious. It’s how you end up drafting Sam Bachman over Ricky Tiedemann and Kumar Rocker over Jacob Misiorowski. There is an argument to be made that Cade Kuehler has the best stuff of the college starters in this class outside of Skenes, Waldrep, and Dollander. Keeping that in mind, Kuehler looks like a really solid get in the third round.
The fastball is the carrying pitch here. He’s touched 99 mph but sits around 94 mph. The shape is elite. He can get as much as 20-21” inches of IVB so he’ll get a ton of whiffs on it at the top of the zone. He struggles commanding it at times, but the pitch is so nasty that it’ll play regardless. It’s at least a 60 pitch right now. If he can harness it, it’ll be a 70.
His main secondaries are a curveball and a slider. He throws the curveball harder than most, usually sitting in the low-80s. He gets good depth, and it pairs wells off the fastball at that velo band. He started getting more downward break on the slider this year which helped him command it a bit better. He’ll throw it in the mid-80s. I’m a bigger fan of the curveball right now.
He's on the shorter end for a starting pitcher with a pretty funky delivery that contributes to his inconsistency throwing strikes. If he can optimize the delivery to the point where throwing consistent strikes, the upside is that of a #2 starter. If not, its more of a volume strikeout #3/#4 or a high-end reliever. I trust Atlanta to get the most out of him.
Jackson Baumeister 3.09
Jackson Baumeister is a fun upside play at this selection. The results were bad at Florida St. but he’s young for the class and still quite raw. The profile is great clay for a progressive organization like Baltimore to get their hands on and mold into whatever fits their model.
Baumeister has long been known for having one of the most metrically appealing fastballs since his prep days. He can put up a 98 on the radar gun but he generally sits 93-94. He gets solid IVB. However, his low release point and great extension out front give the pitch a very flat vertical approach angle. This is the same trait that makes the fastballs of guys like Paul Sewald and Joe Ryan so effective in inducing whiffs.
The curveball is his best and most advanced secondary. He throws it in the mid 70s with 12-6 movement. The slider and changeup are thrown in the mid and low 80s, respectively. The slider and changeup are fringy right now, but he’s only really started developing them this year.
Baumeister is a young draft-eligible sophomore with only one full year of starting experience and was a two-way catcher up until his freshman year at FSU. There’s also still a good amount of projection on his 6’4” frame. You have to really dream on the finished product but if Baltimore is able to develop the secondaries, he can be a solid mid-rotation arm. If he’s a one pitch guy, maybe he can be a late career Jake McGee type reliever who was lights out throwing exclusively the flat fastball.